Kentucky Derby

Purse: $2,000,000

Distance: 10 furlongs

Grade: 1

Age: 3 year olds

 

!!For full past performances with all Latekick speed ratings, click here (requires a PDF reader)!!

 


Final selections:

This looks like a strong edition of the Kentucky Derby. There are several potential superstars in the field, but a few improving types will be keen to to burst that bubble. Top trainer Mike De Kock adds some international spice to the race. 

 

At the odds, I'm going to go with the improving Danzig Moon. He looked very good in the Bluegrass, coming from far back in the field to finish with a flourish, probably even a bit better than the top rated Carpe Diem. The Baffert pair look very strong, but I see little value in their morning line odds. 

International Star, Firing Line and Frosted look the most interesting of the rest. Bolo could be the superfecta boxcar horse. Good luck!!!

 

1. Danzig Moon 30/1

2. American Pharoah 5/2 

3. Dortmund 3/1 

4. Carpe Diem 12/1

 

 


Early thoughts:

Contenders Gray zone Pretenders

Carpe Diem

Danzig Moon

Dortmund

Firing Line

International Star

American Pharoah

Bolo

Frosted

Materiality

Mubtaahij

Upstart

Far Right

Frammento

Itsaknockout

Keen Ice

Mr. Z

Ocho Ocho Ocho

Tencendur

War Story

1. Ocho Ocho Ocho 50/1

Has not progressed this season and looks set to play a minor role. 

 2. Carpe Diem 8/1

Has the highest figure coming into this race and looks overpriced at 8/1. 

3. Materiality 12/1

Was a tenacious winner of the Florida Derby and remains undefeated. Hard to dismiss, even if Johnny V prefers Carpe Diem.

4. Tencendur 30/1

Tencendur looks a cut below some of these.

5. Danzig Moon 30/1

Is improving by leaps and bounds and is a serious player at 30/1. Would not be surprised if he turned the tables on Carpe Diem over 10 furlongs.

6. Mubtaahij 20/1

Made an abolutely mockery of the field in the G2 UAE Derby. The problem with this horse is that he has never even come close to chasing Derby-like early fractions. He'll be 15 lengths behind after two furlongs if he goes the pace he's been used to. He's taking a step into the unknown here.

8. Dortmund 3/1

Looked beaten in the Robert Lewis but battled back very gamely. The Santa Anita Derby was much easier. Strong contender in an above average Derby.

9. Bolo 30/1

His action suggeest that his future lies on the grass. Don't ignore him for a superfecta spot, though. Could well pick up some of the pieces late on.

10. Firing Line 12/1

Two epic stretch battles with Dortmund were followed by the easiest of wins in the Sunland Derby. Looks too big at 12/1.

12. International Star 20/1

Has clearly progressed as a three year old. When using Mr. Z as a benchmark, he looks competitive with the best of these. Interesting. 

13. Itsaknockout 30/1

Topical runner, but probably no more than an early pace factor in this event.

14. Keen Ice 50/1

Looks outclassed.

15. Frosted 15/1

Had a wind operation and seemed much better for it in the Wood, winning with a bit in hand. Not impossible.

16. War Story 50/1

Not good enough.

17. Mr. Z 50/1

Useful performer who shouldn't be good enough for this. 

18. American Pharoah 5/2

Has looked imperial this season, and let's not forget how easily he beat Texas Red last season. This is his big test.

19. Upstart 15/1

Good horse, but probably not quite good enough.

20. Far Right 30/1

Has 8 lengths to find on the favorite. 

21. Frammento 50/1

Made into the Derby, but doesn't pose a real threat. 

 


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