Predictive Ratings

Columns

• Class (in the Race Information table): the class par of the race, measured on a scale 0-100 (higher = better). It is the expected speed rating of the winner. The class par is calculated on the basis of a proprietary formula. The Kentucky Derby would (approx.) be 90 on this scale, i.e. the winner is expected ro run 90.



• Nr: saddle cloth number of the horse (hover over this cell with your mouse to see the number of days since the horse's last race).
• Horse: horse name.
• H%: win % of the horse (hover over this cell with your mouse to see the underlying numbers).
• Early: predicted early speed.
• Middle: predicted middle speed.
• Late: predicted late speed.
• Speed: predicted overall speed.
• Form: predicted overall speed based on the horse's recent performances.
• Pace: measure of the horse's pace tendencies.
• Leader: Number of wins when leading early / Number of races where the horse was leading early. (This helps you determine both the running and winning style of each horse).
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• Closer: Number of wins when closing from off the pace / Number of races where the horse was closing from off the pace. (This helps you determine both the running and winning style of each horse).
• Jockey: jockey for today's race.
• J%: win % of the jockey (hover over this cell with your mouse to see the underlying numbers).
• Trainer: trainer of the horse.
• T%: win % of the trainer (hover over this cell with your mouse to see the underlying numbers).
• Lbs.: weight that the horse has to carry.
• M/L: morning-line odds.
• LK M/L: Latekick morning-line odds (subscribers only). Click here for more information.

The scale of the numbers in the Early, Middle, Late, Speed and Form columns is from 0 to 100. The higher the number, the better. If you want to convert these numbers to lengths, there is a guide on the general help page.

The highest value for each category (Early, Middle, Late, Speed, Form, Pace) is highlighted in green for each race.

Note that all numbers take weight and age into account, which can have some unexpected consequences. Here is an illustration: if a 4 year old who carries 110 lbs beats a 4 year old carrying 124 lbs in a tight finish, the horse carrying the bigger weight will get a higher rating than the winner. I realize that weight is a sometimes hotly debated factor, but our research has unequivocally shown its effect to be limited but not negligible.

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If you have questions, suggestions or any other feedback, do send us an email!

Happy Handicapping!!!